Vegetable Statisics?

[Jackpot]

What are the percentages of all the different things Peach can pull using her down special move? I know she can pluck a few new items in Brawl Minus, such as Lip's Stick and Unira, but what are the exact statistics?

As a follow-up question, though this is unrelated to Peach, what are the odds of Link pulling a Deku Nut with his down special move?

 

[Neville]

Peach in vBrawl has a 1/58 chance of pulling an item or Stitchface individually (which ends up adding up to a 4 or 5/58 chance that you pull an item). It feels as though this is about right in Minus but idk if it's been changed. Peach uses her throwing animation when using the beam sword and lip's stick but you can fix this by throwing it or taunting(her side taunt is cancel-able into a roll) Can't answer your Link question sorry. Peach needs a Stitchface super taunt

 

[Mawootad]

Peach in vBrawl actually has a 1/80 chance of pulling a special item (ie not a turnip of any kind) and draws between beam sword, Mr Saturn, and bobomb with weights 1, 3, and 2. Dunno about stitch face chances. In Minus, Peach has a 1/14 chance of drawing one of 7 special items with uniform weights (divided between bobomb, green shell, beam sword, Mr Saturn, pitfall, lip stick, and unira). Link has a 1/19 chance of drawing a deku nut.

 

[Neville]

Peach in vBrawl actually has a 1/80 chance of pulling a special item (ie not a turnip of any kind) and draws between beam sword, Mr Saturn, and bobomb with weights 1, 3, and 2. Dunno about stitch face chances. In Minus, Peach has a 1/14 chance of drawing one of 7 special items with uniform weights (divided between bobomb, green shell, beam sword, Mr Saturn, pitfall, lip stick, and unira). Link has a 1/19 chance of drawing a deku nut.

I have never ever pulled a green shell.

 

[Mawootad]

It should be possible judging by FitPeach.pac, although maybe there are some issues with Brawl's RNG method. If nobody had ever drawn one I'll go ahead and fix the RNG using a better recently discovered randomization method.

 

[NEWB]

I don't think I've ever gotten one either. I MIGHT have though.

 

[Mawootad]

You should get one about once per 98 turnip pulls. Unfortunately, statistically verifying probabilities on that scale is really difficult (due to the sheer number of samples required. The new method is more flexible anyway, so I'll just go ahead and fix it whether or not it's a broken (if Nintendo badly screwed up their RNG method it'll still have issues, but they would've had to REALLY screw things up badly to have a short repeating pattern modulo 7).

 

[Neville]

I'm a Peach main and can confirm through many games (and people can back me up on this) I have never pulled a green shell. But now that I know it's there I want it so so bad. Edit: I just realized that someimes Peach doesn't pull anything. Perhaps green shells aren't pluckable for some reason?